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Planners have an intrinsic interest in the future. Yet many planners, in developing long-range comprehensive plans, have failed to take into account some of the powerful forces shaping our communities. I want to briefly discuss several key trends which are affecting thousands of towns, cities and counties across the country.
1. Rural America is in crisis. From the Central Plains at the Canadian border down through north Texas and sweeping up to the East through Appalachia, hundreds and hundreds of communities are losing population. In many of these areas, if a bright young person gets a high school diploma or graduates from the local college, his or her next move is out. The shrinkage is due in large measure to the changing structure of agriculture. Today, only 2.5 percent of all workers are inside the farm gate. A second factor is the decline in light manufacturing, largely as a result of effective competition from Japanese and European products.
The economic base of small communities must be identified. There are a half-dozen kinds of small communities that are most likely to thrive. These include: area trade centers, county government seats, retirement communities, suburbs of larger cities, college or university towns, communities that provide recreational opportunities drawing visitors, and those places that are the site of resource-related businesses, such as mines. Communities that do not fall into one of these categories will face an increasingly difficult future.
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… article continues with look at: the promise of information technology; emerging growth hubs within metropolitan areas; and opportunities offered by the globalization of the economy.
